Analysts suggest that "crypto ETF summer" has arrived with the launch of the first U.S.-based staked Solana ETP and increasing likelihoods for other altcoin spot funds.
ETF-focused analysts now predict a 95% probability that Solana, Litecoin, and XRP ETFs will gain approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this year.
Bloomberg ETF experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart updated their projections on June 30 via X (formerly Twitter), elevating approval odds for multiple altcoin spot ETFs.
"We anticipate a new wave of ETFs in the second half of 2025," Seyffart noted.
Their revised forecasts include:
- Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) spot ETFs: Odds raised from 90% to 95%.
- Crypto basket/index-based ETFs: Same 95% approval likelihood.
Key deadlines:
- October 2024: Final SEC decisions for the three altcoin ETFs.
- This week: Potential approval for crypto basket ETFs.
More Altcoin ETFs on the Horizon
Analysts also increased approval probabilities for other altcoin spot ETFs to 90%, including:
- Dogecoin (DOGE)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Polkadot (DOT)
- Hedera (HBAR)
- Avalanche (AVAX)
Final rulings are expected in Q4 2024.
Lower-probability filings:
- Sui (SUI) ETF: 60% chance.
- Tron (TRX) ETF: 50% chance.
In June, Balchunas hinted at a "potential altcoin ETF summer," while Seyffart speculated that "broad crypto-index-tracking ETFs could secure SEC approval next month."
Staked Solana ETF Set to Launch
Bloomberg reported on June 30 that the REX Osprey Solana Staking ETF will debut on Wednesday, marking the first U.S. ETF to enable crypto staking.
Regulatory hurdles initially delayed its launch, with the SEC contesting whether the ETF met the definition of an "investment company" under securities laws. To resolve this, the issuer agreed to:
- Invest ≥40% of assets in other ETPs (mostly registered outside the U.S.).
SEC Delays Persist
Meanwhile, the SEC remains hesitant on Ethereum staking, postponing a decision this week on whether Bitwise’s spot Ethereum ETF can include staking.
The agency also delayed rulings for:
- Osprey Bitcoin Trust share listings.
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FAQ
Q1: What’s driving the high approval odds for SOL, XRP, and LTC ETFs?
A: Growing institutional demand, regulatory clarity progress, and successful Bitcoin/ETH ETF precedents.
Q2: How do staked ETFs differ from standard crypto ETFs?
A: They allow investors to earn passive income (e.g., staking rewards) alongside price exposure.
Q3: Could SEC delays impact the 2025 ETF wave?
A: Temporary setbacks are likely, but broader adoption trends favor eventual approvals.
Q4: Which altcoin ETF has the lowest approval chance?
A: Tron (TRX) at 50%, due to regulatory concerns and limited institutional interest.
Q5: Where can I track upcoming ETF decisions?
A: Follow SEC filings and analyst updates from Bloomberg, Seyffart, and Balchunas.